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COVID 19 Research Paper Recommends Complete Lockdown

04 November 2020

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A scientific study conducted by researchers from Beirut Arab University and the American University of Beirut called for a complete lockdown in Lebanon to contain the rapid spread of Covid 19 in order to slow the cases increase rate in the absence of any vaccine till now.

The study was based on an analysis of real time incidence data for cases that were published by the Ministry of Public Health, according to the Poisson statistical system, which gave scientific results based on the increase and decrease rate of cases.

The researcher Dr. Fatima Saleh, from the Faculty of Health Sciences at Beirut Arab University has conducted the study in cooperation with Dr. Samer Kharroubi from the American University of Beirut. It was published in a special issue of the prestigious international scientific journal "Frontiers in Public Health," which is specialized in public health policies and confronting the spread of Covid 19 epidemic.

The study called to go back to complete lockdown that Lebanon followed where it was effective in facing the epidemic. It also slowed the cases growth rate, reduced the possibility of spread quickly. The study encouraged to take measures for lockdown and impose applying them accompanied by increasing PCR tests and make them available free of charge, track epidemiological sources and secure various economic and social support for citizens to ensure compliance with procedures and strengthening them .

In respect to the period of the complete lockdown, it is related to the authorities' ability to contain the spread of the virus, continuous scientific and health monitoring and assessment of the situation in order to build in light of the results decisions to continue or lift the procedures gradually or completely.

The study ended by drawing attention to the fact that Lebanon which is a small country teetering on the brink of economic ruin and political chaos, has somehow done something right at the right time during specific months. Lebanon can also present a new model that it previously experienced to confront the Covid-19 virus which results formed strategies to confront the epidemic in other countries.

Attached is a graph that shows previous stages of the epidemic's spread and its containment in Lebanon

The study can be viewed through the following link

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.549692/full